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Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

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by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2022 09:01:00 PM

Thursday:
o At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand up from 218 thousand last week.

o Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2021 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 1.3% annualized in Q1, up from the advance estimate of -1.4%.

o At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 1.9% decrease in the index.

o At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully Vaccinated66.6%—>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated (millions)221.1—>=2321New Cases per Day3?104,39999,215<=5,0002Hospitalized3?19,72416,965<=3,0002Deaths per Day3?288273<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.New cases have more almost quadrupled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

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