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How High will Mortgage Rates Rise?

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by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2022 11:05:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: How High will Mortgage Rates Rise?

A brief excerpt:

Currently most forecasts are for the Fed Funds rate to rise to around 3.25%. Goldman Sach’s chief economist Jan Hatzius recently said he thinks the Fed may have to raise rates above 4%, although their baseline forecast is just about 3%.

When the Fed Funds rate peaks in this cycle, the yield curve will likely be fairly flat – meaning the 10-year treasury yield will be at about the same level as the Fed Funds rate. Based on the current estimate for the peak Fed Funds rate (3.25% to 4.0%), the 30-year fixed mortgage will likely peak at between 5.0% and 5.7%. There is some variability in the relationship, so we might see rates as high as the low 6% range. (This all depends on inflation and the Fed Funds rate – but I don’t expect rates to move much higher than the current rate – although 6% is possible).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter

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