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Housing Inventory April 4th Update: Inventory up 0.7% Week-over-week; Up 5.9% from Seasonal Bottom

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by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2022 09:13:00 AM

Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022.

Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 5.9% since then.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of April 1st, inventory was at 255 thousand (7-day average), compared to 253 thousand the prior week. Inventory was UP 0.7% from the previous week.

Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 – very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March.

Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 17.6% from 310 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 66.0% from 751 thousand.

One of the keys will be to watch the year-over-year change each week to see if the declines are decreasing. Here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year.

Week EndingYoY Change12/31/2021-30.0%1/7/2022-26.0%1/14/2022-28.6%1/21/2022-27.1%1/28/2022-25.9%2/4/2022-27.9%2/11/2022-27.5%2/18/2022-25.8%2/25/2022-24.9%3/4/2022-24.2%3/11/2022-21.7%3/18/2022-21.7%3/25/2022-19.0%4/4/2022-17.6%
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in the Altos data.
The blue trend line is from the beginning of the year, and the red trend line is over the last 8 weeks.
Currently it appears inventory will be up year-over-year sometime on the 3rd quarter of 2022.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

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