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Friday: Personal Income & Outlays


by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 09:01:00 PM

o At 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2021. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 6.3% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.9% YoY.

o At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 59.1.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully Vaccinated66.6%—>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated (millions)221.1—>=2321New Cases per Day3?109,564101,091<=5,0002Hospitalized3?19,94917,491<=3,0002Deaths per Day3?305278<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.New cases have more than quadrupled from the recent low, and hospitalizations and deaths are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

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